The Maths of a Global Pandemic

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, we have been bombarded with numbers. The R rate. Graphs at the daily briefings. “Rates not Dates”. The death toll. “Exponential growth”. Financial figures from the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Even for the seasoned mathematician, there have been a lot of numbers flying about. 

But you see, each of these figures have either made decisions, or have been a result of decisions. Before the UK was placed into national lockdown for the first time over a year ago, scientific research at Imperial College London warned that failure to take action would result in around half a million deaths. Professor Neil Ferguson, a mathematical epidemiologist, headed the project for the mathematical modelling which resulted in this sobering figure – a figure which would result in all non-essential businesses being closed and all schools and colleges closing their doors to everyone except children of critical workers. 

The pandemic has been compared to other global crises, including war. Interestingly, both the pandemic and war have one thing in common – the importance of maths. Alan Turing, for example, played a vital role in WW2 by breaking a code that resulted in two years being shaved off the predicted duration of the war. Barnes Wallis used mathematics to plan the Damnbusters raid and the bouncing bomb in WWII. Now, mathematical modelling is the factor that decides when and how the restrictions on our daily lives will be eased to prevent rapid spreading of the virus which would place a strain on the NHS.

It wouldn’t surprise me if, ten years from now, we are still teaching children in the classroom about the maths of the pandemic, so that we can create the next generation of statisticians and mathematical epidemiologists. Who’d have thought that when studying maths GCSE, the statistics element (and more complicated stats) would be used to decide if we had to stay at home? The importance of statistics in situations like this is why some schools teach GCSE statistics too. It’s not just the mathematicians that need to understand the statistics. As those at home, we need to know if what we are being shown is reasonable.

This month, I’ll be exploring four areas where maths has had a role during COVID-19. It’s not all about the graphs and Chris Whitty!